7:31pm: This topic is one of the toughest situations in all of texas hold em, and especially in a heads up format because you see more of these situations than you would at a 6/9/10 handed table. Should you fire the final bullet after all the cards have been dealt? What factors decide when it’s right and when it’s wrong? Is it instinct, math, or psychology? No matter what the answer, simply put: if you fail to assign correct values to hands (especially on the river), you will fail at poker.
We’re all guilty of missing the river value bet in some way, shape or form — myself included. On the other hand, we’re also been guilty of betting hands that we shouldn’t. In playing heads up sngs, we simply play too many hands to get it right every single time. While mistakes are inevitable, what we can seek to do is cut down on them significantly and make sure that our play on the river is as accurate as possible in such a manner that it’s not a leak in your bankroll.
There’s four ways to make mistakes on the river:
- Betting when you should be checking
- Checking when you should be betting
- Betting too much
- Not betting enough
Let’s take a look at one example of each, and determine which one of the four is most detrimental to your bankroll.
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Betting when you should be checking
This one should be relatively easy to fix. This is because it’s easier and less risky to stop betting than it is to start. This is also the mistake most people will readily admit to making. The fix is relatively easy; Simply tune down the aggression factor a little. One of my favorite pieces of advice to people regarding poker is: “You can only gonna get called if you’re beat”.
For example, you hold 2c2d and the board came out in this order: 2s3s4d, Turn: 5s, River 10s. You’ve bet every stage of the hand up to the river, and your opponent has just called you up until that point. I’ve seen so many people bet their hand in this situation, and while I will yield while it is “read dependent” at times, long term it’s simply not a winning play to make a bet here. Sometimes your opponent’s hand has more ways to beat you than it does to lose, and in these situations you should cease betting. You’re beat here if your opponent holds a spade (9), an Ace (3 [discount As]), or a Six (3 [discount 6s]). That’s immediately 15 cards that your opponent has two shots at having (one for each hole card). In addition to all of this, your opponent could also have 33, 44, 55, or 10 10. Add in all of that, and you are reduced to nearly 50/50 odds of your hand being good. Value bets in this spot rarely make sense.
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Checking when you should be betting
This is perhaps the hardest of the four to fix because there are so many factors that go into doing it correctly. Missing value bets on the river has long been a thorn in many a poker players’ side. Let’s run through an example of a situation where a value bet should be made where a check is often the play.
Equal stacks (1500), and you hold AdKc on the button, and you raised preflop to 60 (from 20). Your opponent (who very rarely draws) called, and the flop was AsKd4c. Your opponent checks, and you bet 100 on the flop, and your opponent simply calls. The pot is now 320. The turn brings Jh. Once again, your opponent checks and you bet a good portion of the pot (250), and your opponent once again calls. The pot is now 820. The river is Qd, and your opponent checks to you.
At this point, many people would check out of fear that their opponent holds a ten. While it might backfire on you sometimes, it’s better to bet here than check. Let’s look at why:
Your opponent rarely draws, which usually means their hand is made when they bet or call. If your opponent called you on the flop, it’s a good indicator that they were holding an ace, or a lower two pair (first scenario being more likely). The only way your hand wouldn’t be good at this point is if they happened to be holding A10. Assuming that the first card they are holding is an ace, from an “outs perspective” their second card now has 4 outs to beat you. Add to this the fact that your opponent has checked to you, and slowly but surely you start to realize that it makes more sense to bet here rather than check. Your opponent will more than likely also not put you on a 10, and will often call with a slightly weaker hand.
Since you bet every stage of the hand, and are continuing to fire on a scary board, your opponent might also incorrectly assume that you are weak. Level 1-2 thinking is that betting means weakness and checking means strength. If your opponent subscribes to this theory, then you will probably get a call here with a weaker hand.
Also, in this spot many times your opponent will call you out of plain curiosity. Since you fired 3 bullets, and since they probably aren’t putting you on a ten here, your opponent might call just to see they are beat. I can’t tell you how many times my opponent calls and flips over a pair of kings in this spot.
We now have 3 instances where betting produced a positive result, and one where it produced a negative result. The negative result causes you to to lose the same as you gain when a positive result is produced, therefore your opponent can hold a ten 25% of the time or less for this to be a winning play, and realistically the odds of your opponent holding a ten here are considerably less than 25%.
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Betting too much
This is simply a case of assigning incorrect values to hands. If you price yourself into calling when your opponent shoves, then you have to be sure that the hand you’re pushing with is considerably more likely to be good than not. One of the biggest makes my opponents make is overvaluing weak hands (such as 1 pair, bottom two pair, or the bottom end of a 4 card straight). You can generally get a “feel” for what hand strengths are worth over large sample sizes. This may seem overly simplistic, but it’s true: big hands should win big pots, and small hands should win small pots. If you’re only holding a pair, and the pot is slightly bigger than it usually is when you’re holding a pair then you might want to reconsider the amount your fire on the river, if at all. To cure this, simply take 5-10 seconds before you bet and ask yourself, “what is this hand really worth?”
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Not betting enough
This one is a mystery to me sometimes. There are times when you know you will get paid if you bet huge, but some still chose to under-fire on the river. Here is a classic example:
You hold 7d8s. The board reads: 2c3s4d5h6c. You’ve bet out on every stage of the hand, so your opponent has a significant amount invested in the hand. The play here is to push — nearly every single time. Your opponent will usually call to chop, and even if they aren’t calling to chop they will almost certainly call you to win (so they think) with a single seven in their hand. There’s no reason why you should let them off the hook with this kind of board with that hand, and you stand way more to gain by them calling and losing the whole match than you do if you bet not as much and lure them into a call they normally wouldn’t make.
Which one of these mistakes is most detrimental to your bankroll? They are all really bad, but all in all I’d have to say #2. This is because it’s the hardest to correct. You have to be very honest and critical with yourself in evaluating your river play. Think about chips you’ve wasted in your life on the river card. Sickening, huh?
