10:32am: Somebody once asked me what my secret is to keeping my graph so steady and upward. I couldn’t really sum it up into one phrase, until I read the first line of this article describing how Kenny Tran won event #25 at the 2008 World Series of Poker:

“I definitely have a strategy. I like to grind people out and make them feel bored. I just torture them and let them finally make a mistake.”

All of a sudden, it hit me: this is exactly the same strategy I employ, especially in the early blinds at a heads up SNG. Everyone talks about “mixing up your game”, “playing unpredictable”, “loose aggressive” — and to all that I say: yadda yadda. Loose aggressive is not the new basic strategy. By basic, I mean that in everyone’s quest to try something different and unpredictable, they become — well — rather predictable.

In sharp contrast to this, the whole reason people play poker is because it’s an action game. Half the enjoyment of half the people who play poker is in the adrenaline rush that they feel when playing the game. If you grind them down slowly, you take that enjoyment away from them. So to that, I say try something truly new and innovative, go ‘against the grain’ and do what I do:

“Torture them to Death”

Start a Clean Slate at a New Room, a New Sharkscope, and Keep HFL Free in the Process

1:21pm: I can definitely relate to this article, especially earlier in my poker career. There was a time when I played every two paint cards like they were AK. I’ve matured since then and in general, I think most people get too excited when they are dealt two paint cards, even heads up. That being said, Andy Bloch is a brilliant mind and this is a great article that I recommend reading.

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For many players, there’s nothing prettier than peeking at their hole cards and seeing paint. A-K. K-Q. Q-J. They’re all big hands and, often times, very playable ones, especially in position. Sometimes though, your masterpiece of a starting hand can lead to a very ugly result.

The fact is over-cards can be some of the trickiest hands to play well if they don’t connect with the board. So how do you avoid going broke when you whiff with your overs? In the words of Kenny Rogers, “you gotta know when to hold ‘em and you gotta know when to fold ‘em.”

Let’s say you’re in late position or in the blinds with over-cards and are facing an all-in bet after seeing a ragged flop like 8-5-3 rainbow. What do you do? The answer is an unequivocal “It depends”. First of all, what could your opponent possibly be betting here? Top pair? An over-pair? A set? Your read of your opponent’s hand should greatly influence your decision because if he’s holding anything but a set, you may have odds to call.

That brings me to the next question: how much is he betting? If your opponent’s all-in bet is worth half the pot or less, I think you have to call with any two over-cards so long as you think they’re still live. Over-cards give you six potential outs to the board, meaning that you’re only about a 3-1 dog against top pair if you have no straight or flush draw possibilities. Your over-cards may even be ahead if you think your opponent is pushing all-in on his own draw or is bluffing at the pot.

In situations where you’re not facing an all-in bet, the decision becomes a little harder because you must not only consider the size of your opponent’s current bet, but also the size of his next potential bet. If you’re both deep stacked and you call on the flop, you could find yourself facing a sizable bet on the turn. In this situation, I believe mucking your hand and looking for a better spot is the preferred option.

Another thing to consider in this type of situation is your position relative to your opponent. If you’re playing from position, you may want to consider staying in the hand even if you miss the flop – especially if you can do so cheaply. For one thing, calling a cheap bet on the flop might let you hit one of your overs, giving you what may likely be the best hand. For another thing, being in position can let you try and steal the pot away on the turn or river if your opponent shows further weakness on those streets.

Facing this same situation out of position is much riskier as your opponent has control of the hand and gets to act behind you on every street. I’m much more likely to throw my over-cards away here and look to play a better hand later on.

While position can be a key factor in determining if you carry on with your over-cards, the texture of the board is also something to be considered. On a flop like the one earlier – 8-5-3 rainbow – I’m much more likely to at least see the turn with my two over-cards than I am if the flop is more coordinated, like 9-8-7 or something that brings flush or straight draw possibilities. Why? Because unless my opponent is holding a pocket pair, it’s just as likely that he missed the flop the same way I did. On a more coordinated flop, there are more ways for my opponent to connect and, even if I hit one of my cards, I could be drawing dead against a flush or straight.

If I’m in a pot with multiple opponents, I’m even more likely to play my over-cards conservatively because there are that many more hands that can easily beat me. Where I might try to continuation bet the flop against a single player, I’ll almost certainly check against multiple players because I don’t want to give someone the chance to raise behind me and force me to give up chips I don’t need to waste.

If someone does bet and another player calls, I can very easily give up my hand without having lost too much. If, on the other hand, someone else bets and the action folds back to me, I can determine whether I want to fold, call or possibly even raise in an attempt to steal the pot myself.

When all is said and done, the key to playing over-cards successfully is not to fall in love with your starting hand no matter how pretty it may first appear. Play your hand smart after the flop and you can avoid an ugly result.

Start a Clean Slate at a New Room, a New Sharkscope, and Keep HFL Free in the Process

7:31pm: This topic is one of the toughest situations in all of texas hold em, and especially in a heads up format because you see more of these situations than you would at a 6/9/10 handed table. Should you fire the final bullet after all the cards have been dealt? What factors decide when it’s right and when it’s wrong? Is it instinct, math, or psychology? No matter what the answer, simply put: if you fail to assign correct values to hands (especially on the river), you will fail at poker.

We’re all guilty of missing the river value bet in some way, shape or form — myself included. On the other hand, we’re also been guilty of betting hands that we shouldn’t. In playing heads up sngs, we simply play too many hands to get it right every single time. While mistakes are inevitable, what we can seek to do is cut down on them significantly and make sure that our play on the river is as accurate as possible in such a manner that it’s not a leak in your bankroll.

There’s four ways to make mistakes on the river:

• Betting when you should be checking
• Checking when you should be betting
• Betting too much
• Not betting enough

Let’s take a look at one example of each, and determine which one of the four is most detrimental to your bankroll.

1. Betting when you should be checking

   This one should be relatively easy to fix. This is because it’s easier and less risky to stop betting than it is to start. This is also the mistake most people will readily admit to making. The fix is relatively easy; Simply tune down the aggression factor a little. One of my favorite pieces of advice to people regarding poker is: “You can only gonna get called if you’re beat”.

   For example, you hold 2c2d and the board came out in this order: 2s3s4d, Turn: 5s, River 10s. You’ve bet every stage of the hand up to the river, and your opponent has just called you up until that point. I’ve seen so many people bet their hand in this situation, and while I will yield while it is “read dependent” at times, long term it’s simply not a winning play to make a bet here. Sometimes your opponent’s hand has more ways to beat you than it does to lose, and in these situations you should cease betting. You’re beat here if your opponent holds a spade (9), an Ace (3 [discount As]), or a Six (3 [discount 6s]). That’s immediately 15 cards that your opponent has two shots at having (one for each hole card). In addition to all of this, your opponent could also have 33, 44, 55, or 10 10. Add in all of that, and you are reduced to nearly 50/50 odds of your hand being good. Value bets in this spot rarely make sense.

2. Checking when you should be betting

   This is perhaps the hardest of the four to fix because there are so many factors that go into doing it correctly. Missing value bets on the river has long been a thorn in many a poker players’ side. Let’s run through an example of a situation where a value bet should be made where a check is often the play.

   Equal stacks (1500), and you hold AdKc on the button, and you raised preflop to 60 (from 20). Your opponent (who very rarely draws) called, and the flop was AsKd4c. Your opponent checks, and you bet 100 on the flop, and your opponent simply calls. The pot is now 320. The turn brings Jh. Once again, your opponent checks and you bet a good portion of the pot (250), and your opponent once again calls. The pot is now 820. The river is Qd, and your opponent checks to you.

   At this point, many people would check out of fear that their opponent holds a ten. While it might backfire on you sometimes, it’s better to bet here than check. Let’s look at why:

   Your opponent rarely draws, which usually means their hand is made when they bet or call. If your opponent called you on the flop, it’s a good indicator that they were holding an ace, or a lower two pair (first scenario being more likely). The only way your hand wouldn’t be good at this point is if they happened to be holding A10. Assuming that the first card they are holding is an ace, from an “outs perspective” their second card now has 4 outs to beat you. Add to this the fact that your opponent has checked to you, and slowly but surely you start to realize that it makes more sense to bet here rather than check. Your opponent will more than likely also not put you on a 10, and will often call with a slightly weaker hand.

   Since you bet every stage of the hand, and are continuing to fire on a scary board, your opponent might also incorrectly assume that you are weak. Level 1-2 thinking is that betting means weakness and checking means strength. If your opponent subscribes to this theory, then you will probably get a call here with a weaker hand.

   Also, in this spot many times your opponent will call you out of plain curiosity. Since you fired 3 bullets, and since they probably aren’t putting you on a ten here, your opponent might call just to see they are beat. I can’t tell you how many times my opponent calls and flips over a pair of kings in this spot.

   We now have 3 instances where betting produced a positive result, and one where it produced a negative result. The negative result causes you to to lose the same as you gain when a positive result is produced, therefore your opponent can hold a ten 25% of the time or less for this to be a winning play, and realistically the odds of your opponent holding a ten here are considerably less than 25%.

3. Betting too much

   This is simply a case of assigning incorrect values to hands. If you price yourself into calling when your opponent shoves, then you have to be sure that the hand you’re pushing with is considerably more likely to be good than not. One of the biggest makes my opponents make is overvaluing weak hands (such as 1 pair, bottom two pair, or the bottom end of a 4 card straight). You can generally get a “feel” for what hand strengths are worth over large sample sizes. This may seem overly simplistic, but it’s true: big hands should win big pots, and small hands should win small pots. If you’re only holding a pair, and the pot is slightly bigger than it usually is when you’re holding a pair then you might want to reconsider the amount your fire on the river, if at all. To cure this, simply take 5-10 seconds before you bet and ask yourself, “what is this hand really worth?”

4. Not betting enough

   This one is a mystery to me sometimes. There are times when you know you will get paid if you bet huge, but some still chose to under-fire on the river. Here is a classic example:

   You hold 7d8s. The board reads: 2c3s4d5h6c. You’ve bet out on every stage of the hand, so your opponent has a significant amount invested in the hand. The play here is to push — nearly every single time. Your opponent will usually call to chop, and even if they aren’t calling to chop they will almost certainly call you to win (so they think) with a single seven in their hand. There’s no reason why you should let them off the hook with this kind of board with that hand, and you stand way more to gain by them calling and losing the whole match than you do if you bet not as much and lure them into a call they normally wouldn’t make.

Which one of these mistakes is most detrimental to your bankroll? They are all really bad, but all in all I’d have to say #2. This is because it’s the hardest to correct. You have to be very honest and critical with yourself in evaluating your river play. Think about chips you’ve wasted in your life on the river card. Sickening, huh?

Keep HFL Free

11:51pm: I get a lot of emails and requests asking how should one know when to value bet hands that are not the nuts. Personally, I think a lot of people miss value bets on the river — particularly when the board is scary (yes, even myself sometimes). I saved this article that I read a while back for this specific purpose, as I think it’s dead on in a number of areas.

Since I feel strongly that assigning accurate values to hands is such a huge part of heads up poker, I will follow it up with an article of my own (”Value Betting Scary Boards”) in the next couple of days.

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Anyone who plays poker regularly has heard the term “Value Bet” used when discussing a hand.

For those of you who haven’t, a simple definition would be making a bet (usually on the river) when you are confident that you will be called by a lesser hand. The term is commonly used when you are betting a mediocre hand on the end, but one that you feel is best.

Before I move forward I must advise that this is not just another “trick” to add to your arsenal.

Many weaker players tend to overuse certain concepts once they learn about them and it ends up costing them money instead of making it for them. A good example of this is check-raising a button bettor with middle pair, a good play against a habitual position bettor but a terrible one against someone who would only bet with top pair or better.

My advice is to use the information in this article to your benefit, but make sure you’re not overusing the concept. After all, the reason value bets are profitable is because they will sometimes allow you to gain an extra bet on the river with a hand you would normally check.

So how exactly does one know when he is in a spot where he should make a bet for value? It’s quite simple actually, and requires only simple hand reading skills in combination with a little knowledge of your opponent. Let’s take a look at a couple sample hands and the thinking behind them:

1) I am sitting in a six handed $2/$4 limit game on PokerStars. I’m dealt Q J on the button and the three players in front of me fold. The game is pretty tight and I’ve been raising with a lot more hands than usual since my image is good and people are giving up a lot of pots to me.

The player in the small blind tends to overplay medium hands such as ATo as well as any suited ace, and I’ve seen him put in a cap preflop with AQo and KQs against a player who was a complete rock. He will however fold pretty frequently if he doesn’t have something he likes.

The big blind is very weak and will usually fold to a raise or call and then check/fold the flop.

Now I know I advised to just fold QJo in most situations in my article on Hand Standards, but this is a special case. All signs point towards a raise in this spot since I will likely win the pot without having to make a hand and I do have two high cards with which to make top pair if someone does call my raise.

I put in the raise, and the small blind immediately makes it 3 bets to go. The big blind folds and while I really don’t like my hand anymore, I obviously have to take a flop.

The Flop : K Q 7 There is $14 in the pot.

The small blind bets into me.

This isn’t a flop that I’m happy with, though I did get a piece of it with middle pair. The flop is extremely dangerous with the King as well as the three-flush that I have no draw to. If this were a multiway pot, anything but a fold would certainly be considered suicide.

This situation is quite different as we are heads up, and I’m getting 8 to 1 to call.

The first thing I decide is that I cannot just fold or I am giving up way too much. There are simply too many bets in the pot to throw in the towel just yet. With my aggressive opponent in the SB and his tendency to reraise with A4s and other weak hands, I could actually have the best hand here, and he may also check the turn if a scary card comes.

With all of that in mind, should I call or raise?

I don’t think I gain much by raising here since my opponent is unlikely to respect a raise on the small street and also could put me in a very bad spot by making it three bets to go.

The only reason I’d ever want to raise here would be to gain information about where I was at in the hand. Unfortunately, the board is such that he may reraise with JJ with the Jd or similar hands which I am currently beating. Since he may raise again with a draw, raising doesn’t really help me out much since I still have no clue where I’m at. There is also the small possibility that my raise my win the pot immediately, but with both a K and Q on the flop, it is unlikely to succeed against a 3bettor.

I decide to just call and see what comes on the turn.

The Turn : K There is $18 in the pot.

The small blind bets.

This was an excellent Turn card since it didn’t put another diamond on the board, and also couldn’t have beaten me if I was ahead on the flop. (It is also less likely that my opponent has a King since another is on the board.)

While my opponent could very easily have trips, I still don’t know where I stand except that my hand has just gotten stronger. I briefly consider raising to try for a free showdown, but realize that it’s a bad idea for a couple of reasons. First, he will certainly reraise me with trip Kings, and probably also AQ making me either fold or put more money in while drawing dead or close to it. Second, he is tricky enough to possibly reraise the turn with just the nut flush draw and I’d have to lay my hand down. Third, even if I am ahead, if he is on a diamond flush draw and it gets there on the river, he will most likely bet into me again at which point I will have to call simply because the pot is huge. Hopefully you can see why raising the turn is a bad idea here.

I opt to just call again.

The River : 2 There is $26 in the pot.

The small blind checks quickly.

I really like my hand now since this player is not the type that would try to check-raise with trips on the end here, and he would certainly bet again with AQ if he had it. I also believe he would bet a worse Queen into me, so when he checked I put him on a smaller pair than the board like JJ, TT, 99 probably with a diamond since he bet the flop and turn. I also believe that he will call with any pair he has, and maybe even AJ high if he was that aggressive with it, so this is an excellent spot to put in a value bet on the river.

I bet, he calls, and my hand is good.

I checked the hand history and he actually had A T! It’s amazing how poorly some people play after the flop.

Notice how I really hated my hand preflop and on the flop, but ended up being the one betting on the river in this hand. It’s important to be thinking throughout the hand and trying to deduce what your opponent may have.

Most people would be content to simply check the river here and hope that their hand was good on such a dangerous board. My observation of this player and thinking throughout the hand ended up earning me an additional big bet here as he called with ace high.

2) This time I’m in a $3/$6 shorthanded game on PokerStars and I’m dealt Q Q in the big blind. Everyone folds to the small blind who is a very passive player. From what I’ve seen, he will bet out with top pair and then immediately slow down after being raised, and rarely raise the turn or river without the goods.

The passive small blind limps in and I raise.

It’s worth noting also that the blinds on PokerStars 3/6 games are $1 and $3, making it very unprofitable to come in from the small with some of the lesser starting hands. My opponent probably doesn’t take this into account though, and could be limping with virtually any two.

The Flop : K Q T There is $12 in the pot.

My opponent immediately bets into me.

This is one heck of an action flop, but clearly I don’t mind much since I have middle set which is a very big hand.

Knowing my opponent’s tendencies, I have a few ways I can play this hand. I could raise now and get him to call me down, or I could just call and then raise the turn and hope he had enough hand to call.

The deciding factor was that I’d seen him fold to turn raises in previous hands, but never to a flop raise if he held any pair.

So, I decided to just get the raise in on the flop and convince him to call me down with whatever he held. The reason this is right is because he wouldn’t bet into me with a naked Jack and would need at least KJ, JT or two pair to bet out. Another piece of information that encourages the flop raise is that if he had AJ or J9 and had flopped the straight, he would reraise me immediately on the flop rather than slowplaying to the expensive street and it would then cost me less to draw to my full house. If I wait till the turn to raise, I simply cost myself more money if he has flopped the straight and reraises me.

I raise the flop and he just calls. This tells me that my hand is way good at this point and he has not flopped the straight but is probably drawing to it while also having a pair.

The Turn : J There is $18 in the pot.

The Jack on the turn is an interesting card. First, it completes the rainbow meaning that no flush draws are possible. It also puts four parts to a straight on the board which will usually freeze the action.

The small blind checks.

My read on this guy was that if he had just turned the straight, he would bet into me with it rather than going for a checkraise. He was not the type to get tricky, but would just bet whenever he had a strong hand. Because he checked here I was pretty sure that my hand was still good and that he probably turned two pair and would just call down with it.

Notice here how my read induces more profit on this hand than normal. The standard play here with a set would be to check behind on the turn and then just call the river so that you avoid a tough situation on the turn if you do get check-raised. You’re giving yourself a free card to a full house and your hand could also still be good (but unlikely to be drawn out on), so you still call the river.

Since I knew this guy wouldn’t go for a check-raise though, I went ahead and bet and he called.

The River : 4 There is $30 in the pot.

Again, I still felt my hand was good here, so I bet for value, he called, and I checked the hand history to see that he had KJ.

In this hand I ended up making an additional two big bets simply by reading my opponent’s tendencies and betting a medium hand for value on a very dangerous board.

The point I want to make here is that you shouldn’t be content to just check down your hand on the river if the betting action has told you that it should be good. Even on a dangerous board like KQJT I was able to value bet my three Queens.

Clearly you shouldn’t get extreme here and start betting bottom pair for value, but paying attention is very important and will earn you extra money if you’re observant enough to read your opponents and their tendencies.

Until next time.

Nick Eisel

Keep HFL Free

1:14pm: There’s this feeling you get every now and then. Actually, there’s two of them. The first of which is the sickness that overcomes your body when you’re caught in a thick, complicated situation. The second is the feeling of not knowing what to do in this event. There are so many things to take into account in each individual case, and the answers are often more subjective than anything. So how do you know when it’s time to lay the cards down, and when it’s time to call?

First, it’s time to determine whether or not your holding is strong, marginal, or weak.

In the case that it’s weak, then there’s a pretty good chance that folding is the best option — unless you have a solid read, in which case you don’t need to be reading this. Every now and then you can play the hero and make a call with ace high and have it be the best hand, but these times are few and far between. If you get some evil pleasure by calling someone down light in an attempt to make a statement, then you’re playing for the wrong reasons. The majority of the time you should fold in this spot, although there are a few exceptions — and I do mean a FEW.

If your holding is marginal and you’re faced with this decision, the first thing you need to know is that you got yourself into this mess by playing a large pot with a marginal hand. Therefore, you’ve just made your decision a lot harder. This may sound overly simplistic, but the best thing you can do is play small pots with weak hands, medium sized pots with moderate strength hands and large pots with strong hands. The decision to call or fold with marginal hands isn’t easy, but in my experience, calling with them ends in bloodshed more often than it ends well. That being said, take a second to think about a few things: has your opponent built up enough credibility to this point? what hand strength does your opponent usually showdown? what does his sharkscope look like? If the opponent is a winning player and hasn’t given you no reason to think he is lying up to this point, there’s no reason that you shouldn’t let the hand go until he’s proven otherwise. It is only if the player has no credibility that the situation becomes complicated. If this is the case, then it’s usually correct to go with your first instinct. A wise person once told me, “If you think long, you think wrong”. This advice has proven itself accurate on more than one occasion in the game of poker. The voice in the back of your head is sometimes more logical than the other one, listen to it.

If you hand strength is strong, your problem is more minuscule than you think. In the same way that calling with weak hands isn’t profitable in the long run, folding strong ones will equally eat away at your bankroll just as fast. Once in a blue moon, you will know your opponent well enough to justify folding top two when there’s a straight on the board. However, if you’re consistently laying down top two, sets, or even any two pair than you may be playing the wrong game. Hands of this strength don’t come around often enough in hold em for you to be making these laydowns UNLESS you’re better than 80% certain that you’re beat. Once again, that begs the question: “how do I know when I’m beat?”, and again the best answer I have for you is to use the information at your disposal and piece together the puzzle. Replay the hand in your mind. If you believe your opponent has a straight, did he play the hand the way someone on a straight draw would (until he hit it)? If you believe your opponent has a flush, did he do like most, and call until the club hit on the river? Depending on the limits you’re playing and the skill level of the players, sometimes the answer is as easy as that. If you believe your opponent is deceptive, then this is where experience comes into play. Think about the other 500, 1,000, 2,000, or 5,000 heads up matches you’ve played in your life. How does it normally end when you call someone in this situation, given your hand strength, the deceptiveness of the opponent, and this type of flop/board? If you can recall more times that you’ve lost by making this call than times you’ve won, then it’s time to lay the hand down. On the other hand, if you’ve seen this situation time and time again, and more often than not your hand is usually the winner, then what are you waiting for?

One thing is certain, it’s easier on the brain to call than fold. If you call, you can be 100% sure to know the truth of the matter, whereas if you fold you may be left wondering forever. You have to resist this urge to constantly know the truth, and as many wise people before me have said: “just let it go”. Poker is a game of uncertainties and you have to embrace this fact alone, and move on to the next hand. The second you let curiosity eat away at you, your opponent has already won. Making great laydown is an art, not a science — so be an artist today and fold if your gut feeling tells you that you should.

Keep HFL Free

11:31pm: Today is the first day of the rest of your life!

2:17pm: This is a VERY helpful article I found regarding discipline in poker (or the lack thereof). This should be required reading for anyone even thinking about playing heads up for a living. Enjoy.

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Playing winning poker is a bit like a tree, everything begins at the roots and branches out from there. Unfortunately few players realize this, so when a person identifies a problem, too often they hack away at the branches, instead of going to the roots.

In written storytelling, sometimes writers develop writer’s block — they just can’t figure what to do next. Experienced writers though realize that the problem is not right “there” where they are blocked, but at some point earlier in their story. Driving on the Los Angeles freeways, you sometimes run into a traffic jam. However, your problem as a driver is almost always not the jam itself, but one stemming from “roots” of poor route planning, poor monitoring of radio traffic channels, and so on. Poker is very much the same.

Force yourself someday to listen to some bad beat stories. Almost all bad beat stories involve a player making a mistake — frequently it’s checking the flop with the aim to checkraise. While the storyteller’s point is the “bad beat”, what they really should be focusing on the root of the beat, a risky or incorrect play early in the hand.

Listen when someone discusses a flaw in his or her game. If you analyze the flaw objectively, the person’s problem is almost always not the apparent, surface flaw. The true problem exists one or two or ten steps earlier in the player’s overall game.

Winning players should constantly evaluate their play — what they do well, what they do merely adequately, what they do below average, and possible ways to improve on all three. One great thing about poker is there are so many variables, so many skills and tactics we can tinker with to attempt to get a better result. But all these stem from one great root.

Some people have called game selection, or table selection, the most important of all poker skills. Find the game most suited to your abilities, play in it, and beat it. Okay, that’s important, but even that’s trivial compared to the key root of winning poker.

The very most important skill a player needs to manage is not math, it’s not reading opponents, it’s not good starting hand selection, it’s not a solid game plan, it’s… self-control!

It doesn’t do you any damn good at all if you know you shouldn’t play above your bankroll, if you then do; it’s no good to know you shouldn’t tilt, if you then do; it’s no good to know you shouldn’t play 72o in Holdem, if you do anyway; it’s no good to know your play deteriorates to the point that you are a losing player after nine consecutive hours, if you continue to play after that time; and on and on and on…

Poker isn’t just a game of the moment. When you deal with regular opponents, you should be setting the groundwork for many strategic plays minutes, hours and even months before you pull the trigger on them. Likewise, every action you are doing now should be the result of a solid foundation of previous actions. Each step along a ladder that leads you to an action should be taken with self-control and a proper attitude. Play a game or games you are good at, have a well-considered basic strategy, have as a goal that you want to be a winning payer, find a limit you are adequately bankrolled for, play hands with a positive expectation, keep your butt in the seat only so long as you play nearly optimally, select individual games that suit you, don’t let one day’s poor results allow your emotions to put you on tilt, and so on. With these in place, each individual action you then take will be rooted in a solid, sensible foundation.

All other poker skills, tactics and strategies run through discipline. Every bit of winning strategy and brilliant philosophy must be applied or it’s almost worthless. No other knowledge matters if you don’t practice self-discipline and use what you know. There is no way to discipline. Discipline is the way.

If you want to be a successful, reasonably happy player, work on your self-control first — and I mean work on it first every single day. Nothing compares.

Keep HFL Free

2:08am: Perhaps one of the most tricky things about heads up poker is finding the right balance between deception and truth. How you walk the fine line between value bets and bluffs go a long way to determining how successful you are in heads up sit n gos. Some people don’t bluff enough. Some people bluff too much. The most profitable players are the ones who find the right balance of the two. While there is no one set answer or “magic bullet” to describe the ratio of value bets to bluffs in heads up poker, it probably involves a lot less bluffing than you’d think.

The problem with heads up play for a lot of people is that they have trust issues. While I won’t get into the reasons behind these deep seeded issues, it is not deniable that these issues do exist. Unfortunately for some, this lack of trust towards other human beings carries over too much to the poker table. With this kind of player, it doesn’t matter how many quality hands you showdown, how many times he’s called you (and lost) with bottom pair, or how many times he folds and you show a monster — he doesn’t trust you, and he never well. As long as those two cards you’re playing are face down, he’s going to assume you’re lying.

These are the kinds of players that offset the point and value in bluffing. If you’re going to get called anyway, why lie, right? Therefore, in determining who you should and shouldn’t bluff against, you have to factor in your opponents trust factor. How do they perceive you? Have they demonstrated an ability to make good laydowns, or do they call you light every time, just to prove a point (that they can’t be bluffed)? If it’s the latter, then you really need to re-think your value bet to bluff ratio. If it’s the former, then it might do you some good to show a bluff every now and then. Regardless, bluffing has three main intentions:

• To make your opponent fold
• To throw your opponent off his game, and to keep him guessing
• To get paid later on, when you actually have a hand

If your opponent isn’t intelligent enough to even logically process those three concepts, then bluffing is a totally null and void part of your arsenal. I’ve talked about “fancy play syndrome” before. In the context of playing against a simple minded player, it’s basically the poker equivalent of buying the movie Cloverfield on Blu-Ray; it’s just totally unnecessary. Save the fancy plays for the players who have a second level of thought.

I always tell people that sometimes the solution to patching leaks in their game is right in front of their face. Sometimes less is more, and sometimes it’s not. Be able to recognize when you don’t have to change a thing in order to win, and you’re already one step closer to improving your game.

3:09am: A lot of people would use something as personal and self medicating as a blog to sit here and complain about their misfortune, and list to you every single hand where they got their money in good, only to lose. However, I’m not going to do that.

What I will do, however, is tell you that tonight was definitely not my night, and anything that could have gone wrong, basically did. This is to be expected when poker is your main source of income, and truth be told I was probably due for a night like this.

Couple of positive things:

1. People are still willing to put their chips in the middle in terrible spots.
2. I knew where I was at 85% of the time tonight, and felt like I played every hand in a satisfactory manner.
3. If hands always held up, poker would be a dead sport, and people wouldn’t keep playing.

It wasn’t my worst night in history (I finished 9-12). However, given the sheer amount of games I played today I would have expected something closer to 50%, given my near 61% winning percentage in the $50s over a 2000 game sample size. Part of being a professional is knowing when it’s not your night, and to keep your head up during these times.

It doesn’t feel good, and you don’t have to like it. But you do have to accept it — and most of all, move on. Tomorrow is a new day. However, nothing is guaranteed in poker, as tomorrow could be even worse than today. That’s not to say one should be pessimistic. It’s just the necessary mindset, because cards run good and bad over thousands of hands, not hundreds.

Something really comforting on a night like this is to realize that no matter how you cut it, no matter what, with no exceptions: I’m still making $9 every game I play, even if tonight was a slight deviation from the norm.

Good luck guys, and here’s to hoping your day today will be better than my session was tonight.

Keep HFL Free

1:43am: Although not often enough, sometimes you come across a hand and a board so beautiful that you know you’re going to get paid off no matter what. The way this hand played out also illustrates the deceptiveness of not raising with aces in heads up sit n gos.

Here is a picture of the board (before any betting on the river card took place) in a hand that I played 20 minutes ago, as well as the corresponding hand history — followed by the hand history of the last significant hand. The reason the previous hand is important is because I wanted my opponent to think (on this hand) that I was upset about having to fold in the previous hand, so I basically mimicked his actions from the previous hand. I felt like he wouldn’t take me seriously because (a) I didn’t raise pre flop, therefore the likelihood of me having an ace was less and (b) since I basically mirrored his actions on the previous hand, I felt like he wouldn’t take me seriously.

Previous Hand:

Seat 1: smokinmoon (1410 in chips)
Seat 2: trujm (1590 in chips)
trujm: posts small blind 15
smokinmoon: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to trujm [5s Ts]
trujm: calls 15
smokinmoon: checks
*** FLOP *** [Tc 9c 4c]
smokinmoon: checks
trujm: checks
*** TURN *** [Tc 9c 4c] [4s]
smokinmoon: checks
trujm: bets 60
smokinmoon: raises 60 to 120
trujm: folds
Uncalled bet (60) returned to smokinmoon
smokinmoon collected 180 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 180 | Rake 0
Board [Tc 9c 4c 4s]
Seat 1: smokinmoon (big blind) collected (180)
Seat 2: trujm (button) (small blind) folded on the Turn

Current Hand:

Seat 1: smokinmoon (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: trujm (1500 in chips)
smokinmoon: posts small blind 15
trujm: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to trujm [As 5d]
smokinmoon: calls 15
trujm: checks
*** FLOP *** [Ah 9d Ac]
trujm: checks
smokinmoon: checks
*** TURN *** [Ah 9d Ac] [Jd]
trujm: checks
smokinmoon: bets 30
trujm: raises 60 to 90
smokinmoon: calls 60
*** RIVER *** [Ah 9d Ac Jd] [Ad]
trujm: bets 1380 and is all-in
smokinmoon: calls 1380 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
trujm: shows [As 5d] (four of a kind, Aces)
smokinmoon: shows [9h Jc] (a full house, Aces full of Jacks)
trujm collected 3000 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3000 | Rake 0
Board [Ah 9d Ac Jd Ad]
Seat 1: smokinmoon (button) (small blind) showed [9h Jc] and lost with a full house, Aces full of Jacks
Seat 2: trujm (big blind) showed [As 5d] and won (3000) with four of a kind, Aces

This “over betting with the goods” tactic works very well, in my experience. I knew he either (a) had a jack, (b) slowplayed KK or QQ, or (c) hit a flush on the river. If it’s scenario (a), then he might think that I also had a jack and that I didn’t want to chop the pot, so I would put him to a decision in an attempt to win the whole thing. If it’s scenario (b), then he would know the only thing that beats him realistically is quads, and he would have no choice to pay it off. In this scenario, it would also be hard to put me on an ace since I didn’t raise pre flop. If it’s scenario (c), then I believe I’m actually better off over betting the pot than putting in a small value bet, as people are more likely to perceive over bets as extreme strength or extreme weakness, which would give me a crying chance at him not buying what I’m selling. All things considered, I felt the play here was to go all in, as the “implied odds”, so to speak, of me getting paid off on this hand was relatively high.

Thankfully, I was right as the most likely scenario (a) turned out to be the case and I was able to get paid off.