1:28am: Unfortunately, due to running HFL and also playing live poker 3 nights a week, and running a part time Ebay business 6 months out of the year, I am unable to put in the volume online in heads up sngs that used to. So how did I put in the volume before life got hectic?

By Using the “NFL football season” method.

The NFL is one of the most popular sports leagues in the world. Being as such, most people are aware that there are 16 games in an NFL season. Keeping this in mind, this method would mold each poker session into a microcosm of sorts of an NFL season.

Let me explain. If you follow NFL football with any sort of regularity, then every year you go through the ups and downs that is an NFL season. You also probably don’t panic right off the bat if your team starts out on the wrong foot — say, with a 1-3 record. If they win the next one, they are only one game under .500. The same holds true for heads up sngs. If you pre-commit to this set number of games each day, I find that people usually hold their composure better in a contained environment/system such as this, than they do if they are just arbitrarily playing without any real plan or system.

Any time you get serious and organized about your poker endeavors, it’s almost always a good thing. By employing this method, you’ve basically guaranteed yourself a fighting chance of beating variance because it is focused more on results at the end of the day rather than results by the hour. This is not to say that even less-than-desirable end of the day results mean anything, but it’s certainly better to put more emphasis on doing well over a 16 game stretch than it is to put emphasis on doing well on a game-to-game basis. In addition, this method also helps you stick to volume commitments. So many times we say “if I play X hours per day, and make X dollars per match, I should make X dollars per year”. However, those figures mean nothing if you don’t stick to your volume. This method will ensure that you will make [avg. profit/game] x [16] x [5] dollars per week if you play and “NFL season” per day, 5 days a week.

So let’s say you play $20 heads up sngs, and you average $3 profit per match over a 1,000 game sample size. Using this method, you will ensure that you make $3 x 16 = $48 per day.  Play 5 seasons a week, and you’re suddenly looking at a near guaranteed profit of $240 a week, which is also $960 a month. That’s not exactly chump change.

Like I said before, doing well in heads up is nothing more than a series of mind tweaks and mental manipulations you do with yourself in order to stay in the right mindset, because mindset is everything in heads up poker.

So to this I say at least give it a try - and everyday can be football season year round.

Start a Clean Slate at a New Room, a New Sharkscope, and Keep HFL Free in the Process

2:08pm: Everyone who has had some relative success in poker has no doubt at least thought about doing it for a living at some point in time. It’s easy to say “I make $30/hr playing poker, and $15/hr at my job, therefore it would make no sense to continue working hard when I could be hardly working at all”. There’s no question that in life you have to dream big, but you also have to be realistic about it.

First thing to do when making an important decision is to objectively weigh the costs vs. the benefits of making said decision. Let’s take a look at the good and the bad of becoming a professional poker player.

Here are the benefits to going pro:

• Make your own hours
• Be your own boss
• Take breaks whenever you feel like it
• Vacation time whenever you need it
• Poker requires little to no manual labor
• Pay yourself as often as you’d like
• No having to dress up; Wear whatever you’d like to the office

Here are the costs of going pro:

• Lack of human interaction (if you’re playing online)
• Lack of QUALITY human interaction (if you’re playing online AND/OR live)
• On negative swings, bills don’t stop coming just because you’re on a bad run
• Tax issues: keeping up with it; documenting your results/expenses; filing correctly
• Society, in general, “frowns upon it”.
• The pressure to win every day because your livelyhood depends on it
• Guilt associated with all of the above

While the money might be GREAT sometimes, you must be extremely strong-minded in order to consider doing this for a living. You must treat each day as a seperate entity as the day before it, and never ever think about the past.

Someone once told me, “When you play to get even, you get even worse”. I can’t tell you how many people I see playing to get even, both live and online. If you want to find people online who are trying to get even, sharkscope your next heads up opponent. He probably started playing $5 heads up sngs, and the every time he lost he increased the buy in of his next one. One time, in a $50 heads up sng I sharkscoped my opponent and viewed his last 8 matches. It read like this:

1. $33 + 1.50
2. $20 + 1
3. $10 + .50
4. $5 + .25
5. $2 + .25

He started all the way down the totem pole at $2, and had lost each match he played, effectively trying to recover his money back each time he played. Long story short, he lost to me and then went on to play a $100 heads up match. He also lost that one, and decided to play a $200 match where he finally won.

Point being, going pro takes discipline and a lot of structure. Skipping around in game types/limits is fine for the casual player. However, if you plan to become a pro it’s sometimes best to find a “niche” that you excel in - while considering everything I have laid before you above.

Start a Clean Slate at a New Room, a New Sharkscope, and Keep HFL Free in the Process

12:45am: This is by far one of the most asked questions in regards to heads up sit n gos. There’s no secret that proper bankroll management is at least half the battle in playing winning poker. The whole reason we implement bankroll strategy to begin with is to ensure that our risk of ruin is relatively low. Risk of ruin is simply the odds that standard deviation will destroy your bankroll before you have a chance to win at the levels you expect. The higher the bankroll in relation to the limits you play, the lower your risk of ruin. Each persons risk of ruin will differ, of course, based on their playing style.

People who like to accept coin flips will need a larger bankroll than those who choose to play small ball poker. In addition, those who adopt a strictly LAG strategy will also need a larger bankroll as well because the variance associated with this type of play is generally higher. Conversely, those who adopt a TAG strategy won’t require quite as large of a bankroll. Is that to say one way is better than the other? No. It just means the swings in one is automatically going to be greater than the other, therefore requiring you to have more of an available threshold.

Here are my suggestions for bankrolls for heads up sngs for both TAG and LAG players for each respective stake:

• TAG Players

1. $5 - Normal: $125, Turbo ($6): $175
2. $10 - Normal: $250, Turbo ($11): $350
3. $20 - Normal: $600, Turbo ($22): $800
4. $30 - Normal: $900, Turbo ($33): $1,200
5. $50 - Normal: $2,000, Turbo ($55): $2,500
6. $100 - Normal: $5,000, Turbo ($110): $6,500
7. $200 - Normal: $10,000, Turbo ($220): $13,000
8. $500 - Normal: $25,000, Turbo ($550): $30,000

• LAG Players

1. $5 - Normal: $200, Turbo ($6): $250
2. $10 - Normal: $400, Turbo ($11): $500
3. $20 - Normal: $800, Turbo ($22): $1,000
4. $30 - Normal: $1,200, Turbo ($33): $1,500
5. $50 - Normal: $3,000, Turbo ($55): $3,500
6. $100 - Normal: $7,000 Turbo ($110): $8,500
7. $200 - Normal: $14,000, Turbo ($220): $17,000
8. $500 - Normal: $40,000, Turbo ($550): $50,000

I firmly believe that if you stick to these guidelines, you will be set up for success. As stated before, bankroll management is crucial to those hoping to use poker as a significant source of income and is mandatory for those hoping to do it for a living.

9:48pm: Many a poker career has ended on a player’s decision to move up in limits too soon. Conversely, many careers haven’t realized their maximum potential by not moving up soon enough. This is not exclusive to heads up sit n gos. However, this article will cover advice tailored only towards heads up sit n gos.

First off, we’ve already established that 40-50 buy ins is a safe enough threshold to withstand the variance in heads up sit n gos. The question is: what if you’re sitting there with 70-80 buy ins? Is it time to move up? How do you know when it’s time?

I have established a few existing conditions that NEED to be present within yourself and in your game before you decide to take the climb to the next limit:

• Complete and utter mastery of your current limit from a statistical standpoint - This means that you should be absolutely crushing the $5 heads up matches before you decide to move up to the $10s. That begs the question: how does one define “absolutely crushing”? There’s no one set way to gauge this. However, I would fare to say that if you’ve won 58% or more of your games over a sample size larger than 1,000 games - then it’s safe to say you’re CRUSHING IT.
• Complete and utter boredom with the level of competition. Each match should challenge you and push you to get better. If the matches you play have become so easy that you can watch TV while playing two heads up matches, it’s probably a good idea to move up in limits.
• Thriving financial conditions. If you live on your own and/or have dependants, this means you have enough money for 6 MONTHS of bills + enough money for 40-50 buy ins at the level you intend to move up to.
• A strong back up plan. You have to be prepared to fail. The probability of it, given your success in the past, isn’t high. However, there is a remote chance that this upward move won’t work out for you. Being as such, you’re going to have to have a back up plan in case this doesn’t work out for you. You’re going to have to have the discipline to step down in limits when your bankroll is no longer objectively a bankroll for your limits, but rather the correct bankroll for the limit below it. There’s no shame in moving down. I’ve said it once, and I’ll say it again: this isn’t about pride, glory, being a rock star, or fame - this is about money.
• Complete fearlessness. You can’t be intimidated by the thought of moving up. Sometimes people get scared at the idea that the opponents will be too much to handle, even moving up from the $5 to the $10 level. Whenever you need something to inspire you to not be afraid, just think about how the $5,000 heads up players would regard the $20 heads up players. Those are the guys you should fear, not the ones in one level above you. There are many levels of skill, and the sky is the limit in poker. Do not let the fear of the unknown overcome your desire and will to succeed.

If all these conditions are in place, then I would definitely suggest moving up. If even one is missing, I think it would be in your best interests to make sure it is addressed, and then you can move forward from there. If this article even helps one person from becoming like all the others who never realize their potential due to having too much fear -OR- not having enough of it, then I can rest easy.

1:36pm: This is a pretty well written article that I found written by Jason Kirk. Just thought I’d share it with you guys.

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Sooner or later, no matter how skilled he may be, every poker player is going to hit an extended run of poor results. There are few things in poker that will test a player’s mettle more than running bad. Some melt under the pressure, even going so far as to leave the game completely. Others find that they thrive when they have to break their game down and rebuild it from the ground up. Whatever their response, everyone who runs bad inevitably questions their game and looks for a way to stop the bleeding. The most important thing to do in such a situation is to step back and make sure you’re asking yourself the right questions. If you do this, your chances of getting back on track should improve.

1. How much of your bad run is your fault?

While it isn’t a very comforting thought to someone in the midst of a losing streak, it’s very important to note that many players who think they are running bad because of poor cards are really running bad because of leaks in their game. Even worse, these may be leaks that don’t actually appear until a bad run begins. Players who find themselves unable to win can be prone to making basic mistakes because they find themselves jolted out of the mindset they maintain easily when winning. These mistakes can pile upon one another and make a bad situation even worse.

If you’re having a bad run, it’s of the utmost importance that you sit down and analyze your game in detail. This is where having access to a program like PokerTracker can come in handy. Start with your preflop hand selection and make sure you aren’t playing too many hands. Try to figure out whether or not you’re maximizing your position. Are you chasing draws without the proper pot odds? And are you making the most of opportunities to build big pots when you’re on a solid draw? Do you play too many weak or mediocre hands from the blinds? These are all holes in your game that you may not see when you’re having poor results, but which can be fixed easily. Repairing them may not stop the bad run completely, but it will go a long way toward getting you back to respectable results.

2. Do you need to step down in limits?

Bankroll management is a skill that not enough players learn - and it’s also one that can be crucial to saving your stake if you go on a bad run. Players who have built up a bankroll over time through playing in low-limit games, and then find themselves running bad in a middle-limit game they’ve grown accustomed to playing, can fall prey to a dangerous sort of pride. Even if their shrinking bankroll justifies a move down in limits to protect their stake, they feel too embarrassed to do so. They worry about what other players will say if they see them haunting the low-limit tables again, continue to play above their bankroll in the middle-limit games, and then find themselves completely broke or crippled to the point that they’re forced to move down.

Don’t make the mistake of being too proud. It’s better to step down voluntarily to a game you can crush than to be forced to because you lost all your bankroll playing above your head on a bad run. Stepping down can often be the extra cushion you need to weather the downswing you’re experiencing.

3. Are you playing the right game?

Many times a bad run can be at least partially attributed to your game selection. This can apply both to the specific game you’re playing (e.g. limit hold’em, no-limit sit-and-go tourneys, etc.) and also to choosing the right tables. The urge to “get back” when losing repeatedly can cloud your vision, leaving you stuck at an unprofitable table when there are plenty of loose, crushable games to choose from. You may also get into a rut playing your usual game that can only be done away with by playing a different game. Tournament players can be especially susceptible to this because a bad tourney streak can come about even when you’re playing well.

4. Do you need to take a break?

If you examine all the question above and find you’re still playing a solid game, usually the best answer to a bad run is simply to keep playing. Your results should even out in the long run. But if you’ve found flaws in your game, your bankroll management skills, or your game selection, sometimes the solution is simply to step away from poker for a while. This can be a painful choice for many players, but it’s also sometimes necessary. Many of the lessons we learn when playing poker don’t sink in all at once, and continuing to move forward with too much unprocessed experience in our minds can be counter-productive.

If you find yourself unable to fully concentrate, get away from the game for a while. Use the time you would normally spend playing poker to enjoy other activities. Clear your head. When you decide it’s time to come back to the game, you may just find yourself playing the best poker of your life.

3:40pm: I get emails about it all the time. I see posts on PocketFives and 2+2 about it all the time. The big question:

“What’s the best way to turn FPPS directly into cash?”

To answer that question, first we have to determine what is not the best way. Let’s take a look at the overly simplistic, old fashioned way: buying cash bonuses directly from the FPP store on Pokerstars. If you buy the $50 reward bonus for 5,000 FPPs, each FPP is worth exactly 1 cent. If you buy the $285 bonus for 25,000 FPPs, each FPP is worth 1.14 cents. Going further, if you buy the $650 bonus for 50,000 FPPs, each FPP is worth 1.3 cents. So let’s calculate how much you’d have to play in order to release a $285 bonus:

Let’s say you are a SilverStar member on Pokerstars. You earn 5 base FPPs for every $1 in tournament fees. However, the multiplier for SilverStar members is 1.5 so you wil actually be earning 7.5 FPPs for every $1 in tournament fees. Let’s say that you play 10 $20 heads up sit n gos daily, for a total of $10 in tournament fees/day. This would yield approximately 75 FPPs per day. If you play 5 days a week, that’s a grand total of 375 FPPs/week. This means that it would take you 66 weeks and 5 days to acquire each $285 bonus at this rate. Yearly, you’re looking at only about $220 in bonuses, which roughly translates into $4.24/week in return on your play. To calculate how much of this is “rakeback” (money earned back from the rake you pay), all you have to do is figure out how much you pay a week in rake, and then divide it by your return. If we use the existing conditions (10 heads up sngs/day), and if you played 5 days a week you would pay approximately $50/week in rake, but only get a return of $4.24 on it. This calculates into essentially 8.5% rakeback. As you can see, this is not a very generous return on your hard earned FPP points.

So to choose a more optimal method of getting cash in return for your FPPs, we need to examine other options. There’s a beautiful thing about PokerStars satellites — you can unregister from them. Anytime you unregister from an event, you are credited with T$ (tournament dollars). These tournament dollars can be used in any tournament on PokerStars (regular sit n gos, heads up sit n gos, MTTs, or anything else that has a set buy in fee).

Let’s pretend like you guys took my advice to keep $2,000 in your account for $50 heads up sit n gos. Remember, $2,000 is your “threshold”, which means that at any given time you should always have $2,000 in your account and $2,000 written on your bankroll sheet as money towards your net worth. If you play heads up sit n gos for a living, then it doesn’t matter if that $2,000 is in cash or tournament dollars because each spends the same on PokerStars, as related to heads up sit n gos. Simply put: if you want to maximize your gain from FPPs, the best option is playing satellites and unregistering from them every time you win a seat.

I know, I know. That begs the question “which satellites?”

The answer to that could be a matter of preference, but I will tell you what I do personally. Some people suggest the 1200 FPP 27 player satellites to the Sunday Million. After all, each time you win, you pocket $215. However, anytime you’re dealing with fields this big, you’re putting your fate in the arms of variance. It’s tough to grind out 25,000 FPPs, which would earn you 20 buy ins to the 1200 FPP Sunday Million satellite, and it’s totally conceivable that on a bad day you would not win a single one. However, let’s just say that you fulfill basic odds, and win 1 out of 27 like you’re supposed to. Well, it looks like I’ve already made my point. In theory, if everyone is of the same skill level as you, you are expected to win 1 out of 27. However, using this method you would only have 20 buy ins, which means that you’re statistically not even guaranteed to win one of them. Therefore, this method’s variance is too high to be a reliable method of turning FPPs into cash. So to that, I say no thanks. We’ll need something with (a) smaller fields and (b) lower FPP buy ins to maximize our potential of earning cash back.

Look no further than the 70 FPP satellites to the Sunday One Hundred Grand. These are single table (10 seated) sit n go satellites, with the winner taking the $11 buy in for the tournament. Not to mention these are probably the softest sit n gos on the planet. After doing some calculations we discover that we can buy into 357 of these satellites with 25,000 FPPs. For the sake of argument however, we will say that you once again fulfill normal odds and win 1 out of every 10. This means that you can expect to profit $11 36 times out of 357. Using this method, your total “rakeback” would be $396, which is a significantly better return on 25,000 FPPs than the cash award of $280.

How many at a time should you play? I suggest six.

Let’s take it one step further. We were being very literal when we talked about you winning 1 out of every 10. A blind monkey could probably take 1 out of every 10 of those satellites. Take my word when I tell you these sit n gos are so soft that you can expect to win not only win 1 out of 10, but actually as much as 1 out of 6. It’s simple: when you get a hand better than AQ offsuit (for unpaired cards) or 77+ (for paired cards), shove it. Yes, that’s right, that’s all it takes because they are that bad. The first ten hands of these things are pretty much someone picking up KJ, QJ, J10, or any suited connectors and going all in hoping to get lucky. If you have 6 tables loaded, you can afford to wait for AQoff or better and then watch in amazement as time and time again someone calls you with a worse hand. Of course there will be exceptions when people will call and you will be behind, but more often than not, even if you’re behind it won’t be by far. I don’t suggest shoving 22-66, as a good portion of the time you will be called by pairs higher than this and will be behind significantly.

If you follow this method, let’s assume you will win 1 out of every 7 satellites. This means that you will profit $11 approximately 54 times with your total of 25,000 FPPs. Using this technique, each 25,000 FPPs is worth approximately $594. Breaking it down even further, this makes each FPP you earn worth 2.4 cents. Compare that to the stingy return (1.14 cents/FPP) on the $280 cash bonus that PokerStars offers and you will see that by implementing this technique you will more than double the default value of your FPPs.

This method equates to 18% rakeback, which is light years better than the 8.5% rakeback method discussed above. Not to mention that if you win more than 1 out of every 7 satellites, you could earn up to 25% rakeback.

Have fun with it!

12:13am: I fell asleep last night, so I had left off at 3-0. I decided that I would count the games I played today as part of yesterday’s session, and then begin a totally new session afterwards. After going 5-8 the day before yesterday, I rebounded the last 24 hours to go 5-0 (2-0 on Cake, 3-0 on PokerStars). This further emphasizes my point about keeping the correct mindset with my bankroll management strategy discussed 3 days ago.

Finishing 5-8 the other night didn’t bother me at all, because I never write down that I’m down. This might sound like data manipulation, but it’s not, because it’s true. As discussed before, it’s not if you will be up, but when. And fortunately for me, “when” is now, as I was able to make my first withdrawal in 2 1/2 days. Let’s look into the numbers:

My “Threshold”: $2,000
Yesterday’s Record: 5-8 (-$182.50)
Today’s Record: 5-0 (+$237.50)

The threshold was reduced to $1817.50 after the dismal showing the other day. However, my bankroll/net worth sheet still showed my PokerStars account as having $2,000 in it. I can do this, because I know eventually it will return to the threshold over a large sample size. Fortunately, it was sooner rather than later, and if you do the math: [$1817.50 (actual threshold) + $237.50 (today's profit) = $2,055], you will see that I was actually able to withdraw $55, leaving me with my original threshold of $2,000.

Is that a lot of money? Not really. However, my cash out method kept me in the right mindset knowing that I’m never down, therefore preventing me from losing more, and actually enabling myself to get above the threshold the next day (even I didn’t think it’d be THIS quick). Everything else from there is pretty much rinse and repeat.

More later…

4:10am: This is an article I couldn’t resist sharing with you guys, because it’s so true; The first step in the right direction in bankroll management is being able to pencil in what your “psychological bankroll” is.

And in case you’re curious, I’m having a better start to my day than yesterday. I’m 3-0 so far (2-0 on Cake, 1-0 on PokerStars). Enjoy the article.

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“I got a kick out of having a big bankroll in my pocket. Even if I only made a couple hundred dollars, I’d always keep it in fives and tens so it’d look big.” - Mickey Cohen

Nov. 8, 2007

By Evelyn Ng
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer

There have been countless articles written on proper poker bankrolls. You ask any professional player the top-five questions that he or she is asked most frequently, and the bankroll management question is bound to be on everyone’s list. However, I think that the reason people struggle so much with answering this question on their own is because they fail to factor in the fact that there are two bankrolls you must manage: your physical bankroll and the less mentioned psychological bankroll.

Everyone has heard about the physical bankroll. The standard is that it should be between 300-500 times the big bet. There should be some money set aside for living expenses and $100 or so for buy-ins to the average tournament. You could argue these figures, but more importantly, you should start to consider a very widely ignored and important consideration, the aforementioned psychological bankroll.

Whether you are just starting to play poker, or you have been playing for a while, you are always going to encounter your losing days and downswing streaks that can be tough to handle. To me, your psychological bankroll is the amount of money you can stand to lose before it affects your mindset, and adversely, affect your game.

Never underestimate the value of keeping a cool head.

When I was just starting out, I used to play poker and deal blackjack and poker in the casinos. The fact that I had a paycheck coming in every week to fall back on during my losing streaks was important for my psychological mindset, but there was still always a threshold of the amount that I could lose before I would literally lose sleep over it.

When I would lose that amount, it would bother me so much that I found that I was no longer playing well that day, and it would than often affect the next session or two, as I was trying to protect my stack from suffering a similar fate that it had suffered the session before. Losing that amount essentially made it too difficult to continue playing poker optimally until I got over it, and I eventually learned to stop playing when I reached my limits and that helped me to overcome the problem. As you move through poker limits, your threshold may increase or decrease depending on how your results are for that week or that month, but it’s important to stay aware of the amounts that you can and can’t handle, and then maintain the discipline to quit before you overstep your boundaries.

Everyone’s threshold is different, and I have found through my experience that there are several ways to prevent yourself from becoming a victim of what I like to call “psychological bankroll tilt”:

1. You can give yourself a stop-loss limit. The term basically means exactly what it says. You set a limit that you feel comfortable losing for the day, and you stop when you have lost that amount to prevent yourself from falling into the zone that makes you uncomfortable
2. You can keep a detailed record of all your sessions. If you take poker seriously, you should be practicing this method already, but if not, then you should start. On top of the easily recognizable benefits of knowing if you are ahead or behind, the records can serve as a positive reinforcement to get you to feel better about the day’s losses by forcing you to focus on the big picture.

Doyle Brunson once said that to succeed in poker, you have to have a blatant disregard for money. While many of us try and aspire to think that way at the table, it is not easy for the part-time casual player that has a family and rent to pay to think this way. By setting limits for your physical and psychological bankroll, you allow your regard for money to rule the table without it negatively affecting your game.

2:19am: I get emails all the time asking if there’s a set routine I follow as pertains to cashing out. I hear horror stories about people winning big one night, only to lose it later and find themselves wishing they had cashed it out while they could. Personally, I don’t think the “cash out quick when you hit big” method has any validity to it (unless you are a losing player in the long run), however I do think that anything that is systematic and gets you into a routine in poker is always a good thing. Therefore, if you haven’t developed a system for cashing out, you should strongly consider it. So with that said, what’s mine?

First off, I always keep a set amount in my account. I won’t say what that amount is, but let’s say for the sake of argument $2,000 — which by the way, is more than enough for a $50 heads up sit n go bankroll. Let’s call this amount my “threshold.” On my net worth/bankroll sheet it’s always written down as having $2,000 in my PokerStars account, even if I actually have less in it. Let’s say I go 3-7 on the night and the final net profit is -$225.00. Let’s also say that I go 7-8 the next night, for a final net profit of -$87.50 . That brings my two day net profit to -$312.50. However, no worries because I’ll never write down that I’m actually down. I just don’t cash out until I’m up over my threshold. Wouldn’t it be nice to never have a losing day?

With this method, there are no losing days — just days. What this does is puts you in the right mindset of “I’m never down because I always win in the longrun”, so you only have to worry about how much time it’s gonna be until you’re able to cash out, not if you’ll be able to cash out. It might take you 2-3 days to get back to the threshold, so when you’re down you’re not really “down”, you’re just working for free at the moment. If you know for a fact that you’re a winning player in the long run, then you will be able to take full confidence in yourself knowing that you’ll always get back to the threshold.

So how much over the threshold should you cash out at? That’s totally up to you, but I recommend 2 heads up matches.

There is also another system for cashing out that I think warrants some consideration. I call it the “true expectation” method. Why? Because you’re paying yourself on a “per game basis”, according to what your long term expectation is. For example, let’s say according to Sharkscope you have an average profit per game of $5. Assuming that the data is valid, you can figure out a set number of matches everyday that you need to play in order to earn what you want. That being said, let’s say that ideally you’d like to make $100 per day. Well, in order to make $100 per day with a $5/game average profit, that would mean that you should play exactly 20 matches a day to assure that you will make an average of $100 per day. Notice I didn’t say “assure that you do make $100 per day.” That’s because deviations will occur, but will always average out to exactly $100 over a large sample size. If you don’t prefer playing a set number of games per day, try just simply paying yourself $5 per match and play as many as you’d like. Once again, since we’re working with valid data, you’re paying yourself according to true expectation — so as long as you have a sufficient amount in your account to handle the swings, you will almost always be at, slightly above, or slightly below your threshold. There is a small catch to this method: you need a REALLY big sample size before you can circle a number and call it your true expectation. For heads up sit n gos, I wouldn’t try this until you have at least 1,500 games under your belt.

These two methods are very different, but they have one thing in common: they are systems, and systems are an important part of playing for a living. Do you have one?

This is an article I wrote from back when I first started this site, before it became a blog.

1:40am: This is a true story about the potential effects of “tilt” on the human brain, and how it can ruin not just your day, week, month, or year - but also your life.

For the sake of anonymity, we will call the unfortunate soul “Nate”. About 4 years ago, Nate was introduced to poker, right around the time the poker boom first started. He had no clue how to play, but he took one step in a card room, and knew he was interested in finding out. Nate had a couple of friends from which he could learn. However, like most people, he was no good and lost a little bit of money in the beginning. He was lucky to get away with the downswings at this point, however, as he was mostly playing 3-6 limit hold em and similar low limit games.

After a couple of months of losses, Nate noticed he had started winning. He had a couple of winning sessions here and there, and eventually he noticed he was winning more than he was losing. Nate had turned $200 into about $1,300 within 3 months of learning the game. He then decided to test his skills in a higher limit game (2-5 NL) with his $1,300 bankroll (which is a BAD idea if you have read any of my articles). However, it actually worked out in Nate’s case because he ran into a tremendous run of both great cards and beginners luck in this increase in stakes. At the same time, I was experiencing a similar run coincidentally, and Nate and I were literally lighting the felt on fire. Nate then turned the $1,300 into $10,000 in about a month following his initial $1,300 run. I, meanwhile, had taken in around $8,000 that month, which wasn’t as impressive as his run, but I felt like my profit was more of a steady grind and less of a good run.

With that being said, Nate was on top of the world. He had money he never dreamed he would, he made new friends, and was doing this all by doing something he now loved: poker. He also partied like a rock star and dined like a king. Every night, either before or after poker, he frequented local upscale strip clubs and partook in activities that I won’t mention here. In addition to this, you can tell he was high on life. It’s as if his smile was permanently glued onto his face.

However, as you will find out, that smile did come off his face. What you are about to hear is not pleasant to the ears, nor is it all that uncommon. Don’t think that it can’t happen to you, because there is a fine line between profitability and disaster in poker.

After his $10,000 run, Nate then went on to higher limits. He gave 5-10 NL a shot, which also proved to be profitable. He then turned $10,000 into $20,000 within another month and a half or so, and at his peak had earned $23,000. With more money than he had ever known in his life, and with a great bid of confidence from the other players in the casino, Nate stepped up to the big weekend game: 10-25 NL . The idea of making $2,000 routinely on a single pot was highly attractive to him because he felt very comfortable with his ability to play the game and to think and make better decisions than the players around him, no matter what their income level was. Nate didn’t “crush” the game as he previously did with 2-5 NL, however he didn’t do all that bad either. It is very routine to lose or win $2,000 in one single session in this game. However, as a wise person once told me, “the wins never feel as good as the losses feel bad.” Nate had a bad night and lost $3,200 in a session, and this did not sit well with him at all. In an attempt to get his money back, he took a trip to the “pits” to play some baccarat. As we all know (hopefully), casino table games are “house revenue” games, and have a negative expectation in the long run. Nate simply did not understand this concept as he sat down at the table. However, in a “fortunate” swing of events for him, Nate actually got ALL of his money back plus another $500. He gave me a call to tell me the good news, and he sounded like he was on top of the world. This one event would change the course of his life as we know it.

I took the time to explain to Nate how dangerous these casino games were, and explained to him the best I could the concept of negative expectation and long run return. He assured me that he understood what I was saying and that it was a one time occurrence just intended as a way to “get even” from his recent losing session in the big game. Nate went to sleep with piece of mind but then returned the next night to give the 10-25 NL a try again with a fresh outlook and clean slate. Low and behold, the same unfortunate situation presented itself before him, and he was stuck $2,500 for the night about 6 hours into it. We would always walk over to each others’ tables to check on each other to see how the other was doing. On my way to the big game to see how he was doing, I noticed that he wasn’t there anymore, and someone new was in his seat. I found it odd that he would leave without saying goodbye, even if he had a losing session. It just didn’t seem like something he would do. On a hunch, I thought he might have went to the baccarat table again, so I took a walk over there. I was shocked to see he was there for the second night in a row. I then asked Nate “what in the world” he was doing, and urged him to get up. He assured me that he would in a little while. When people tell me something, I give them the benefit of the doubt until they prove otherwise, so I went back to my cozy spot at the 2-5 NL table.

At the end of my session and on the way out, I stopped by the baccarat table to say goodbye to Nate. However, we was not there. I thought, “this couldn’t be good, no way.” I was right. I got a call about 10 minutes later saying “dude I’m SICK. I lost $8,000 tonight.” Of course I felt bad for him, but I wanted to be a good friend rather than a sympathetic one and told him that although I feel for his situation, I cannot comfort him because I originally disagreed with his decision to play baccarat. We had a meaningful and seemingly constructive conversation about how we would easily be able to grind the money he lost back by playing solid poker AND going back to the middle stakes. I explained to Nate the effects of bankroll on his play and also his “tilt factor.” He agreed, vowed to only play poker, and we ended the conversation.

The next month consisted of Nate grinding his money back, and calling me at the end of the night looking for advice on if he was making correct decisions or not. Most of his poker decisions were correct, and I assured him that his decisions at the poker table were never in question. Once he won all of his money back, he once again started playing 10-25 NL despite my disapproval. In fact, as a measure of protest, I told Nate that I would not talk to him until he did two things: 1. stop playing limits that weren’t in his bankroll range, and 2. stop playing baccarat in attempt to make up for money that he lost in poker. There was a noticeable difference in the frequency of time we spent talking, as he knew I was ashamed of him. I also got the feeling he was ashamed of himself as well, despite his uncontrollable urge to mend his wounds at the baccarat table. I didn’t hear from him in two weeks, so I figured things couldn’t be that bad because if had lost a significant amount of money in one night or week, I would have received a call from him for sure.

Then the phone rang. It was Nate. Before I could even say “Hello”, he interrupted me by saying “It happened again.” I said, “What do you mean ‘it’ happened again?” He said, “Me. Me happened again.” “How much have you lost?”, I said. He replies, “You don’t even want to know.” I held my breath and expected the worst, but he told me that he had about $7,000 left. I told him to calm down and to put things into perspective: after all, he started with $200 and had been able to live off his profits from poker for a good while now. He was distressed almost to the point of being inconsolable. However, by the end of the conversation we had come to an understanding of where his mind was and where it needed to be. He vowed, once more, to never play baccarat again and to grind back his profits by playing 2-5 NL.

Things went well for about a week. The phone rang again. It was him. “It’s gone”, he said. “All of it?”, I replied. “Yes, Jason.” Obviously there were no words I could possibly say to him to console him or to make him feel any less worse than he already felt. The only thing I could tell him was that I am his friend, and I was there for him, so if he needed to vent or if he needed a person to talk to about it, he shouldn’t hesitate to get in touch with me. He took a cold shower and then went to sleep for what seemed to be about a week, because I didn’t hear from him.

Nate then walks up to me on a routine night at the 2-5 NL and tells me that he was able to get his hands on $2,000 and that he was back with a fresh outlook and new attitude. Even though I disagreed with $2,000 as being a sufficient bankroll for 2-5 NL, I encouraged him in his decision to return to poker because I knew that when he is playing his “A” game, he is one of the better players in the casino. He sat down with me at the 2-5 and crushed the game just as I thought he would. “See? I told you, man. This is where it’s at.”, I told him following our session. He seemed slightly encouraged but it seemed like something was still on the back of his mind. “It was a loan, Jason.”, he told me on the way out. “Are you serious?”, I asked, although he was obviously very serious. I didn’t even need to tell him that this was a bad idea, he already knew. However, I still had faith in him as a player, so I hoped for the best and wished him luck.

Two weeks passed and he turned $2,000 into $5,000. Two more weeks passed and he turned $5,000 into $10,000. A month later Nate had overcame all odds and turned $2,000 into $20,000 once more and once again he was on top of the world. I asked him what he thought about paying back the loan now that he had the money and a comfortable bankroll. “I’ll let it ride until I get down to the last $2,000.”, he replied. I shook my head and disagreed, but knowing Nate, there was no changing his mind.

Well, since you know before reading this story that it is a “nightmare story”, I don’t think I need to tell you what happens next. In short, Nate once again “got comfortable”, started playing higher limits, and was unable to handle the downswings. Lightning struck yet again, and Nate was once again broke. However, I didn’t get a call this time: I had to call him. For a week or so, he didn’t answer his phone out of shame, which is understandable considering the level of embarrassment he probably felt. When I finally got in touch with him, he asked me, “Dude, what is wrong with me?”. I then told him that he had a problem.

Once again, on a routine night at the 2-5, Nate walks up to me noticeably more happy, and he told me that he now has $4,000 to work with. I asked him if it was a loan, and he just walked away without answering.

Can you believe what happens next? He once again turned $4,000 into over $20,000: $22,000 to be exact. We had a conversation on the phone where i preached to him for about 4 hours straight that he was given a third lease on life and that he needed to guard this bankroll with his life, and he agreed. However, once again I found him at the 10-25 NL table on a Friday night. I looked at him in scorn, and pretty much ignored any attempts he made to justify his decision. I then decided to just cut all ties to my personal emotion when it came to this matter, and that he had to make mistakes on his own in order to fully learn his lesson. On my way out, I once again stopped at the table just to say bye only to discover that he was not there.

Low and behold, he was sitting at the baccarat table with a sob story about how he had lost $1,500 on some “donkey call” another player made pre flop, calling $1,500 with Ac5c while Nate held KsKc, only to spike an ace (actually, two aces) on the flop. “I give up.”, I told him, so I just sat there at the table with him and watched him play. To make an already long story shorter, I will just sum things up by saying that 4 hours later, it was gone. All of it. We then walked out together, and I thought he might be suicidal at that point, so I stayed on the phone with him on the way home. He still owed me $500 from this one time I spotted him when he wanted to buy into a 2-5 NL game but didn’t have the cash on him. He vowed to repay me, as soon as he got a job. I told him not to worry about it at all, and that he had more important things to focus on, namely paying back $17,000 in loans (which I only thought was $6,000 but he admitted it was more) and regaining his sanity. We hung up and parted ways for the night. A couple of weeks went by and I didn’t hear from him, so I gave him a call. He didn’t answer. People at the casino were asking about him as if I was his secretary, and I put two and two together and realized that he might owe some people money. More time passed, and I still hadn’t heard anything from Nate.

To this day, I still haven’t.

1. What lesson can be learned here? First off, never ever ever ever ever play a limit that your bankroll cannot support (see my bankroll article). Secondly, and perhaps even more important is: never play casino revenue table games. Those games are not designed for the player to win, and as we talked about in a previous article: there is a reason casinos “wine and dine” players with free meals, hotel rooms and guest privileges. And last but not least, learn to control your emotions at the table. Ultimately, Nate couldn’t control his “tilt factor,” and this was his fatal flaw. It was a shame to see someone with so much raw talent at the poker table not have the discipline to be a true professional at what he was doing. Do not make the same mistake!
2. The key to avoiding the same fate is knowing yourself. Know everything about yourself. Know your tendencies, know your habits, know you strengths and most importantly: know your weaknesses. If you are self aware of the destructive behavior that can cause you to lose your bankroll, you can avoid it when you recognize you are heading down an undesirable path. For example, if you know you will be tempted to play blackjack to make up for your poker losses when you have a losing session, only bring a certain amount with you to the casino and leave your atm card at home!
3. Always keep in mind the big picture. If you are a true professional poker player, you know that your hourly wage includes the losing sessions. On your way out of the casino on a miserable night, just tell yourself, “It’s ok. I’m still making $x/hr.” Only you know what your statistics look like in the long run, which is why keeping track of your results is so important, as we have already talked about.