8:54pm: Another question I get asked a lot is:

“What’s the biggest mistake you see other players make when they play you?”

Well, of course there’s a few things. However, I will talk about two things that seem to stick out more than the others. My opponents seem to have a lack of traditional understanding of risk-to-reward ratio. Some of the mistakes stemming from this concept are small ones, but unfortunately for them, some of the mistakes are match-changing.

What are these two mistakes I speak of?

1. Chasing draws out of boredom

• I see it all the time. Someone is holding Qs6c, and the board has nothing for them (8c2sAs). All of a sudden, a meaningless spade rolls off on the turn (10s). I, on the other end, am holding Ks10c and value bet my hand on the turn (half the pot). For whatever reason, too often I see my opponent call right here in this situation JUST on the dry spade draw. Something in the human brain — boredom, the discomfort of never finding out that outcome or what could have been, or the human tendency to “never give up” — just won’t let these people fold, and little by little it chips them down until they have one move: all in or fold. Either that is the case, or even worse than that: they hit it (and it’s still no good!).
• Another draw that people chase way too much is the dry, one card open ended straight draw. For example, they hold 6sKc, and the flop is 7c8d9d. Granted that one should expect to realistically have 11 outs in the situation. However, that’s not the problem. The problem is the lack of implied odds you have to chase 8 out of those 11 outs. Couple that with the fact that 4 out of those 11 outs could get you into real trouble (10) if your opponent holds a Jack. And for what it’s worth, if your opponent comes out firing on this flop, J9 is a legitimate possibility of their holding. Going even further, your opponent could have been betting on a flush draw which means you have 3 less outs than you think. Should this be the case, then you have close to 0 implied odds as the only way you’re opponent is going to pay you off on the river is if they try and steal the pot if they miss. Even if someone does have a relatively strong hand and you do wind up hitting your draw, people tend to proceed very cautiously when 4 cards to a straight are on the board — so how much do you really expect to get paid even IF you hit. Overall, the risk-to-reward ratio for chasing this kind of hand is not in your favor. For the most part, you’re either going to win a small pot, or lose a very big one. These situations make much more sense in multi-way pots in cash games, where the pot odds alone are enough to justify the call. Heads up, just let it go. There are better spots than this — just be patient.

2. Over Betting the Pot Without a Hand

• I see this mistake a lot pre flop, especially in the 10/20 blinds. Every now and then someone will crank out a raise to something ridiculous like 280, without any explanation. At the 10/20 blinds, if you throw 280 chips into the pot with only 20 of mine invested, I’m not going to call you. I’m either going to push or fold, and if I push only having 20 chips initially invested, you can pretty much bet you’re beat at that point. Luckily people have done this enough in situations where I wake up with KK or AA, so I’ve been able to push and see what in the world kind of hand would cause them to do such a thing. Most of the time, it’s hands like 22-88 — low to mid pairs that people just don’t know how to play, so they don’t even want to play the hand in the first place. This is a huge mistake because 80 times out of 100 they’re going to win a minuscule sized pot, but the other 20 times out of 100 they’re going to lose a huge one.
• As much as I see this happen pre flop, I see it happen even more on the river. I’m not just talking about slightly over betting the pot. I’m talking about 420 into a pot with 80 chips in it, or even worse. Anytime anyone does this, it makes me smile because I know it’s never +EV for them against me. NEVER. I wrote an article previously about a hand where a guy did this while I was holding the nuts, and you can see how it worked out for him. The risk to reward ratio was not even close to be able to justifiably make that move. Truth be told, it rarely is — the only time I would suggest doing such a thing is when you actually have a near unbeatable hand and you think your opponent won’t believe you because you bet too much. Anything less than that is just plain foolery.