1:14pm: There’s this feeling you get every now and then. Actually, there’s two of them. The first of which is the sickness that overcomes your body when you’re caught in a thick, complicated situation. The second is the feeling of not knowing what to do in this event. There are so many things to take into account in each individual case, and the answers are often more subjective than anything. So how do you know when it’s time to lay the cards down, and when it’s time to call?
First, it’s time to determine whether or not your holding is strong, marginal, or weak.
In the case that it’s weak, then there’s a pretty good chance that folding is the best option — unless you have a solid read, in which case you don’t need to be reading this. Every now and then you can play the hero and make a call with ace high and have it be the best hand, but these times are few and far between. If you get some evil pleasure by calling someone down light in an attempt to make a statement, then you’re playing for the wrong reasons. The majority of the time you should fold in this spot, although there are a few exceptions — and I do mean a FEW.
If your holding is marginal and you’re faced with this decision, the first thing you need to know is that you got yourself into this mess by playing a large pot with a marginal hand. Therefore, you’ve just made your decision a lot harder. This may sound overly simplistic, but the best thing you can do is play small pots with weak hands, medium sized pots with moderate strength hands and large pots with strong hands. The decision to call or fold with marginal hands isn’t easy, but in my experience, calling with them ends in bloodshed more often than it ends well. That being said, take a second to think about a few things: has your opponent built up enough credibility to this point? what hand strength does your opponent usually showdown? what does his sharkscope look like? If the opponent is a winning player and hasn’t given you no reason to think he is lying up to this point, there’s no reason that you shouldn’t let the hand go until he’s proven otherwise. It is only if the player has no credibility that the situation becomes complicated. If this is the case, then it’s usually correct to go with your first instinct. A wise person once told me, “If you think long, you think wrong”. This advice has proven itself accurate on more than one occasion in the game of poker. The voice in the back of your head is sometimes more logical than the other one, listen to it.
If you hand strength is strong, your problem is more minuscule than you think. In the same way that calling with weak hands isn’t profitable in the long run, folding strong ones will equally eat away at your bankroll just as fast. Once in a blue moon, you will know your opponent well enough to justify folding top two when there’s a straight on the board. However, if you’re consistently laying down top two, sets, or even any two pair than you may be playing the wrong game. Hands of this strength don’t come around often enough in hold em for you to be making these laydowns UNLESS you’re better than 80% certain that you’re beat. Once again, that begs the question: “how do I know when I’m beat?”, and again the best answer I have for you is to use the information at your disposal and piece together the puzzle. Replay the hand in your mind. If you believe your opponent has a straight, did he play the hand the way someone on a straight draw would (until he hit it)? If you believe your opponent has a flush, did he do like most, and call until the club hit on the river? Depending on the limits you’re playing and the skill level of the players, sometimes the answer is as easy as that. If you believe your opponent is deceptive, then this is where experience comes into play. Think about the other 500, 1,000, 2,000, or 5,000 heads up matches you’ve played in your life. How does it normally end when you call someone in this situation, given your hand strength, the deceptiveness of the opponent, and this type of flop/board? If you can recall more times that you’ve lost by making this call than times you’ve won, then it’s time to lay the hand down. On the other hand, if you’ve seen this situation time and time again, and more often than not your hand is usually the winner, then what are you waiting for?
One thing is certain, it’s easier on the brain to call than fold. If you call, you can be 100% sure to know the truth of the matter, whereas if you fold you may be left wondering forever. You have to resist this urge to constantly know the truth, and as many wise people before me have said: “just let it go”. Poker is a game of uncertainties and you have to embrace this fact alone, and move on to the next hand. The second you let curiosity eat away at you, your opponent has already won. Making great laydown is an art, not a science — so be an artist today and fold if your gut feeling tells you that you should.
Start a Clean Slate at a New Room, a New Sharkscope, and Keep HFL Free in the Process
